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謠言傳播模擬:如何阻止謠言傳播

模擬謠言在Telegram 、短片和娛樂帳號中的傳播,並找出哪些措施能最快阻止謠言傳播。

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傳聞描述 + 官方事實 · 📄 隨附一份範例文件。

範例問題

關於Ravnik自來水受到污染的謠言將如何透過社群網路和娛樂內容傳播?誰會放大謠言?當局和媒體採取哪些措施才能最快阻止謠言傳播?
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📄 範例文件

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"Don't drink the tap water": rumour empties shelves in Ravnik

RAVNIK, Slovenia — Three days after repairs at the town's water-treatment plant, pharmacies and shops in Ravnik, a town of 9,000 people near the Croatian border, have run out of bottled water. The trigger was a rumour that the tap water is contaminated. The municipal utility has published laboratory results showing the water is safe — but many residents say they simply don't believe them.

Background

On 2 October the utility Komunala Ravnik replaced a filter unit and a section of the main pipe at the treatment plant. For about six hours some households had cloudy water, a normal effect after pipe works. That evening the anonymous Telegram channel "Ravnik brez cenzure" (7,400 members) posted that "chlorine was dumped in to hide bacteria". Two TikTok videos showing brown water in a bathtub — it is unclear where they were filmed — collected 600,000 views, and the entertainment Instagram account @stajerski_trac (210,000 followers) shared them with the caption "Ravnik, don't drink!".

Who is involved / positions

  • Komunala Ravnik, director Igor Novak: lab tests from an accredited laboratory on 3 and 4 October show no bacteria and chlorine within limits. "The water is safe. We drink it ourselves."
  • Mayor Darja Klemenčič: first stayed silent, then held a press conference and drank a glass of tap water on camera; commenters called it "staged".
  • Nika Zupan, a local lifestyle influencer (45,000 followers), says she trusts "her own eyes more than a PDF" and posts daily stories about her bottled-water stock.
  • Dr. Rok Bizjak, GP at the Ravnik Health Centre: no increase in stomach illnesses; he worries that elderly patients are drinking too little.
  • Regional newspaper Obmejni glas checked the TikTok videos and found that one was filmed two years ago in another country.
  • Croatian commuters, about 1,100 people who cross the border daily to work in Ravnik's factories, are bringing water from home and asking employers for bottled water.
  • Supermarket chain Zelenko raised the price of a 6-pack of water from €2.10 to €3.40, saying "supplier costs" — which caused new anger.

Key facts and numbers

  • 9,000 residents; 6 hours of cloudy water after repairs.
  • 2 lab tests, both within all limits.
  • 600,000 TikTok views; 7,400 Telegram members.
  • Bottled water price: €2.10 → €3.40.

What happens next

The utility will publish real-time water data online. The mayor has invited the national public-health institute to take independent samples. The Telegram channel promises "new evidence" this weekend.

This material is fictional and was created as an example for a simulation.

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工作原理

  1. 01
    知識圖譜

    從你的資料中提取人物、組織和事件,並將它們編織成世界的共同記憶。

  2. 02
    人口

    每個實體都成為一個具有個性、興趣和記憶的智能體;模擬參數會自動調整。

  3. 03
    模擬

    經紀人同時在兩個社交平台上發布、評論、爭論和改變主意,一輪又一輪。

  4. 04
    報告

    分析師會研究所有發生的事情,並撰寫預測報告,其中包含關鍵轉折點、風險和有影響力的群體。

  5. 05
    對話

    詢問任何一位經紀人他們為何做出那樣的反應,或向分析師提出後續問題。

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