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Simulering av ryktesspridning: Hur man stoppar ett rykte

Modellera ett rykte som sprids genom Telegram, korta videor och underhållningskonton, och ta reda på vilka åtgärder som stoppar det snabbast.

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Beskrivning av ryktet + officiella fakta · 📄 Ett exempeldokument medföljer

Exempelfråga

Hur kommer ryktet om förorenat kranvatten i Ravnik att spridas via sociala nätverk och underhållningsinnehåll, vem förstärker det, och vilka åtgärder från myndigheter och media stoppar det snabbast?
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📄 Exempeldokument

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"Don't drink the tap water": rumour empties shelves in Ravnik

RAVNIK, Slovenia — Three days after repairs at the town's water-treatment plant, pharmacies and shops in Ravnik, a town of 9,000 people near the Croatian border, have run out of bottled water. The trigger was a rumour that the tap water is contaminated. The municipal utility has published laboratory results showing the water is safe — but many residents say they simply don't believe them.

Background

On 2 October the utility Komunala Ravnik replaced a filter unit and a section of the main pipe at the treatment plant. For about six hours some households had cloudy water, a normal effect after pipe works. That evening the anonymous Telegram channel "Ravnik brez cenzure" (7,400 members) posted that "chlorine was dumped in to hide bacteria". Two TikTok videos showing brown water in a bathtub — it is unclear where they were filmed — collected 600,000 views, and the entertainment Instagram account @stajerski_trac (210,000 followers) shared them with the caption "Ravnik, don't drink!".

Who is involved / positions

  • Komunala Ravnik, director Igor Novak: lab tests from an accredited laboratory on 3 and 4 October show no bacteria and chlorine within limits. "The water is safe. We drink it ourselves."
  • Mayor Darja Klemenčič: first stayed silent, then held a press conference and drank a glass of tap water on camera; commenters called it "staged".
  • Nika Zupan, a local lifestyle influencer (45,000 followers), says she trusts "her own eyes more than a PDF" and posts daily stories about her bottled-water stock.
  • Dr. Rok Bizjak, GP at the Ravnik Health Centre: no increase in stomach illnesses; he worries that elderly patients are drinking too little.
  • Regional newspaper Obmejni glas checked the TikTok videos and found that one was filmed two years ago in another country.
  • Croatian commuters, about 1,100 people who cross the border daily to work in Ravnik's factories, are bringing water from home and asking employers for bottled water.
  • Supermarket chain Zelenko raised the price of a 6-pack of water from €2.10 to €3.40, saying "supplier costs" — which caused new anger.

Key facts and numbers

  • 9,000 residents; 6 hours of cloudy water after repairs.
  • 2 lab tests, both within all limits.
  • 600,000 TikTok views; 7,400 Telegram members.
  • Bottled water price: €2.10 → €3.40.

What happens next

The utility will publish real-time water data online. The mayor has invited the national public-health institute to take independent samples. The Telegram channel promises "new evidence" this weekend.

This material is fictional and was created as an example for a simulation.

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Hur det fungerar

  1. 01
    Kunskapsgraf

    Människor, organisationer och händelser utvinns ur era material och vävs in i ett gemensamt minne av världen.

  2. 02
    Befolkning

    Varje enhet blir en agent med en personlighet, intressen och sitt eget minne; simuleringsparametrarna justeras automatiskt.

  3. 03
    Simulering

    Agenter postar, kommenterar, argumenterar och ändrar sig på två sociala plattformar parallellt, runda efter runda.

  4. 04
    Rapportera

    En analytiker studerar allt som hänt och skriver en förutsägelse med de viktigaste vändpunkterna, riskerna och inflytelserika grupperna.

  5. 05
    Konversation

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