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소문 확산 시뮬레이션: 소문을 막는 방법

Telegram, 짧은 동영상, 엔터테인먼트 계정을 통해 퍼지는 루머를 모델링하고, 어떤 조치가 루머 확산을 가장 빠르게 막는지 알아보세요.

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예시 문제

Ravnik 의 수돗물 오염 루머는 소셜 네트워크와 엔터테인먼트 콘텐츠를 통해 어떻게 확산될 것이며, 누가 이를 증폭시킬 것인가, 그리고 당국과 언론의 어떤 조치가 이를 가장 빠르게 차단할 것인가?
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"Don't drink the tap water": rumour empties shelves in Ravnik

RAVNIK, Slovenia — Three days after repairs at the town's water-treatment plant, pharmacies and shops in Ravnik, a town of 9,000 people near the Croatian border, have run out of bottled water. The trigger was a rumour that the tap water is contaminated. The municipal utility has published laboratory results showing the water is safe — but many residents say they simply don't believe them.

Background

On 2 October the utility Komunala Ravnik replaced a filter unit and a section of the main pipe at the treatment plant. For about six hours some households had cloudy water, a normal effect after pipe works. That evening the anonymous Telegram channel "Ravnik brez cenzure" (7,400 members) posted that "chlorine was dumped in to hide bacteria". Two TikTok videos showing brown water in a bathtub — it is unclear where they were filmed — collected 600,000 views, and the entertainment Instagram account @stajerski_trac (210,000 followers) shared them with the caption "Ravnik, don't drink!".

Who is involved / positions

  • Komunala Ravnik, director Igor Novak: lab tests from an accredited laboratory on 3 and 4 October show no bacteria and chlorine within limits. "The water is safe. We drink it ourselves."
  • Mayor Darja Klemenčič: first stayed silent, then held a press conference and drank a glass of tap water on camera; commenters called it "staged".
  • Nika Zupan, a local lifestyle influencer (45,000 followers), says she trusts "her own eyes more than a PDF" and posts daily stories about her bottled-water stock.
  • Dr. Rok Bizjak, GP at the Ravnik Health Centre: no increase in stomach illnesses; he worries that elderly patients are drinking too little.
  • Regional newspaper Obmejni glas checked the TikTok videos and found that one was filmed two years ago in another country.
  • Croatian commuters, about 1,100 people who cross the border daily to work in Ravnik's factories, are bringing water from home and asking employers for bottled water.
  • Supermarket chain Zelenko raised the price of a 6-pack of water from €2.10 to €3.40, saying "supplier costs" — which caused new anger.

Key facts and numbers

  • 9,000 residents; 6 hours of cloudy water after repairs.
  • 2 lab tests, both within all limits.
  • 600,000 TikTok views; 7,400 Telegram members.
  • Bottled water price: €2.10 → €3.40.

What happens next

The utility will publish real-time water data online. The mayor has invited the national public-health institute to take independent samples. The Telegram channel promises "new evidence" this weekend.

This material is fictional and was created as an example for a simulation.

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작동 방식

  1. 01
    지식 그래프

    여러분의 자료에서 사람, 조직, 사건들을 추출하여 세계의 공유된 기억 속에 녹여냅니다.

  2. 02
    인구

    각 개체는 개성, 관심사 및 고유한 기억을 가진 에이전트가 되며, 시뮬레이션 매개변수는 자동으로 조정됩니다.

  3. 03
    시뮬레이션

    요원들은 두 개의 소셜 플랫폼에서 동시에 게시물을 올리고, 댓글을 달고, 논쟁을 벌이고, 생각을 바꾸는 등, 여러 차례 활동을 이어간다.

  4. 04
    보고서

    분석가는 발생한 모든 일을 조사하고 주요 전환점, 위험 요소 및 영향력 있는 집단을 포함한 예측 보고서를 작성합니다.

  5. 05
    대화

    담당 요원에게 왜 그렇게 반응했는지 물어보거나, 분석가에게 추가 질문을 해보세요.

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